A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
